Technology to transform passenger transportation by 2030

Vehicle connectivity, vehicle autonomy, on-demand mobility, and vehicle electrification are the four key trends set to transform global passenger transportation over the next 35 years, according to a white paper from Navigant Research.

The consultancy says current developments in automotive technology preview a future where vehicles are capable of doing the driving and electric drive technology is efficient and affordable. At the same time, governments are increasingly pushing for reductions in emissions, the long-term trend of people moving to live in urban areas is forcing cities to regulate private car usage, and 24/7 connectivity is becoming more prevalent, ultimately signaling a seismic shift in the way individual make journeys.

“By mid-century, the practice of someone primarily driving himself or herself around town in a gasoline car will be as unusual as traveling by horse and buggy is today,” says John Gartner, senior research director with Navigant Research. “Instead, the combination and intersection of autonomous, shared, connected, and electric vehicle technologies will contribute to the gradual reduction of the number of cars on the road beginning in the 2030s that is already prompting automakers to expand to a variety of new mobility as a service business models.”

By 2050, the only element of personal mobility common to the turn of this century might be the act of moving around in self-contained vehicles on wheels, according to the report. The development of carsharing and ride-hailing services is at the core of a trend toward on-demand mobility that veers away from individual vehicle ownership, which is expected to gradually decline in popularity as mobility services expand.