Political uncertainty dampens equipment leasing confidence

When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 18.5% of executives said they believe business conditions will improve, an increase from 17.9% in September. Most (81.5%) believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, a decrease from 82.1% the previous month.

A quarter (25.9%) of survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures will increase over the next four months, a decrease from 35.7% in September. The majority (70.4%) believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, an increase from 64.3% the previous month, while 3.7% believe demand will decline, up from none who believed so in September.

A greater proportion (14.8%) of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, up from 10.7% in September. The majority (85.2%) of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, a decrease from 89.3% last month. None expect “less” access to capital, unchanged from last month.

Views on the current US economy are evenly divided. While 51.9% evaluate it as “excellent,” 48.2% assess economic conditions as “fair”.

However, looking ahead, 14.8% believe economic conditions in the US will worsen over the next six months, an increase from 3.7% in September, while 74.1% indicate they believe the US economy will “stay the same”.

Quentin Cote, president, Mintaka Financial, said: “I’m optimistic because we are at full employment, and I believe small businesses will look to capital equipment to make their workers more efficient since hiring is more difficult. I’m concerned about political instability.”

However, some respondents argued that a change in a congressional majority in the upcoming mid-terms “will make decision making at the federal level go from frantic to inoperable”, suggesting this instability could hold back business investment.

Michael Romanowski, president, Farm Credit Leasing Services Corporation, was more optimistic, citing the impact of earlier changes made by the Trump administration.

He said: “The fourth quarter will be a good barometer to how our customers are using tax reform to manage their tax positions. We expect that many customers will be advised by their tax advisors to increase their use of leasing, resulting in an increase in year-end purchase leaseback activity.”

Balboa, an independent financing company that specializes in small business equipment leasing, says the results of its own survey to gauge the investment plans of small business owners for the final months of 2018 shows 80% are planning to invest in new equipment, technology, and marketing during the fourth quarter.

Carla Freberg, director of sales at Balboa Capital, said: “Small business owners are reporting increased investment plans in equipment, marketing and personnel for the remaining months of 2018.

“This correlates with the rise in the number of business loan and equipment lease applications we are seeing. We think this is a result of the positive economic conditions, and continued confidence among business owners. Plus, many business owners are looking to take advantage of the Section 179 tax deduction before the end of the year.”

The Balboa survey revealed that to cover the costs of their Q4 investment plans, 32% of small business owners will apply for a small business loan, 29% will apply for an equipment lease, and 18% will seek to obtain a line of credit.