Cox Automotive’s latest Report makes bold predictions for 2024’s new and used markets

Automotive services provider, Cox Automotive, today unveils a wealth of industry data and understanding with their 2023/24 Insight Report, produced in collaboration with Grant Thornton.

The Report includes forecasts for the UK’s new vehicle sector which foresee a baseline scenario of 2,020,050 new vehicle registrations in 2024, a 4.3% year-on-year increase albeit a continued steep decline compared to the 2000-2019 average.

For the used sector the baseline scenario figures are new registrations of 7,350,205 which is a 2.8% year-on-year increase but a 0.3% decrease compared to the 2001-2019 average. The calculations suggest that 2024 will be a period of stabilisation in the automotive sector generally, followed by a notable rise in registrations in successive years.

The baseline scenario is one of three scenarios published by Cox Automotive and is the scenario it expects to play out. The report also includes upside and downside scenarios. Hypotheses guiding the baseline prediction include figures for new car registrations will be dictated by continuing economic pressures, the agency sales model transition and the stabilising of global production volumes. Used market numbers for 2024 will be shaped by issues including a gradual adoption of used battery electric vehicles (BEVs), a moderately recovering economy and a “carefully managed” growth in the supply of used vehicles – the report concludes.

Insight Report author and Cox Automotive’s Insight Director, Philip Nothard (pictured), said: “It gives me great pleasure to publish Cox Automotive’s fifth Insight Report, a labour of love that again contains a wealth of information, data and insight that’s designed to aid the strategies and business decisions of our partners and stakeholders.

“Recent years in the automotive sector have seen a period of unprecedented change and tumult that are being driven by economic forces, geopolitics and technological innovation. In our latest Insight Report, we closely examine these factors and outline how we think the future will pan out for dealers, the EV market and much more.

“We are also proud to continue leading the pack with our new and used forecasts. Our latest forecast accuracy averages 99.1%, meaning ours are outlooks that can be relied on. We anticipate that the market will eventually be split between manufacturers who want profitability at the cost of volume and market share; and those who will return to a ‘push’ market at the cost of profit for volume and market dominance.”

Insight Report 2023/24 also features discussion of trends that are shaping the industry such as the agency sales model, omnichannel, the unstoppable rise of EVs, battery management and sustainability. Find out more by downloading your copy here.