Western Europe’s commercial vehicle industry is bracing for a challenging year ahead, with projections indicating the steepest decline among global markets in 2025. According to a recent S&P Global Mobility report, stringent regulations and economic turbulence will drive a downturn in medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) sales, signalling a period of significant industry transformation.
Economic and political challenges weigh heavily
After a lacklustre 2024, the outlook for 2025 remains grim for Western Europe’s heavy commercial vehicle market, according to S&P Global Mobility’s new MHCV Industry Forecast Report for Q1 2025. Sluggish economic growth, declining order intake, and ongoing political instability—especially in key economies like Germany and France—have compounded uncertainty for businesses.
The international transport sector, particularly the dominant Class 8 heavy-truck market, has been severely impacted by rising operating costs and a persistent driver shortage. In 2024, new registrations for Artic (tractor-truck) vehicles declined for the first time since the pandemic-induced slump in 2020.
Rigid trucks, however, have shown some resilience, bolstered by European funding programs such as RePowerEU and the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility. These initiatives have facilitated infrastructure development and supported the transition to more sustainable transportation models across EU member states.
Regulatory pressures reshape market conditions
The European automotive sector is grappling with an increasingly complex regulatory environment, with strict emission and safety standards influencing market behaviour. Recent changes, such as the introduction of the Eurovignette Directive—integrating CO2 emissions into toll calculations—are accelerating the shift toward cleaner vehicle alternatives. Similarly, localised programmes like France’s Crit’Air initiative are pushing fleet owners to replace older models with low-emission vehicles.
Future regulatory milestones, including the implementation of Euro 7 standards by 2028 and the Fit for 55 emissions reduction targets for 2030 and beyond, will drive further changes. These policies will likely lead to fluctuations in vehicle demand, with spikes in pre-registrations ahead of each new regulatory deadline, disrupting market seasonality and availability.
Market concentration and the future of trucking
Unlike the light vehicle segment, the heavy commercial vehicle sector remains dominated by a handful of established European manufacturers. In 2024, vehicles with a gross vehicle weight (GVW) exceeding 15 metric tons were overwhelmingly supplied by seven key European players, while Chinese brands captured a mere 0.02% market share.
Despite global trends favouring electrification, the slow adoption of zero-emission solutions in heavy transport—combined with strong customer loyalty—has limited opportunities for new market entrants. Analysts suggest that significant infrastructure and technological advancements are necessary before non-European manufacturers can gain substantial traction. However, the medium-duty segment (6 to 12 metric tons GVW) presents a more favourable environment for alternative powertrains and new competitors.
Outlook for 2025 and beyond
Western Europe’s MHCV market is projected to contract by 4.2% in 2025, with total sales estimated to fall to 290,000 units from 303,000 in 2024. With persistent economic stagnation, political uncertainties, and evolving regulations, the sector faces a turbulent road ahead.
Nevertheless, aging truck fleets and sustainability-driven incentives could offer a glimmer of hope, encouraging investment in cleaner transport solutions. Industry stakeholders will need to adapt to shifting market dynamics, leveraging innovation and strategic planning to navigate the challenging landscape of the coming years.
