UK’s EU vote hits global auto sector

The UK’s unexpected vote to leave the European Union is likely to see light vehicle sales globally drop around 1.25 million units behind what had been originally anticipated, according to preliminary analysis from IHS Automotive, which says that while the biggest fall will be in the UK, western Europe and the rest of the world will also experience an auto sector slowdown.

Ian Fletcher, principal analyst, IHS Automotive, forecasts that the declines that were already to take place in the UK during 2017 and 2018 are now expected to be steeper. Registrations of light vehicles are now forecast to fall by 9.1% year on year to 2.758 million, rather than a 3.5% year on year decline. For 2018, registrations are now expected to hit 2.71 million units versus the 2.94 million units for the consultancy’s pre-referendum forecast.

On a global basis, Fletcher says he now expects growth to be less substantial over the next few years. During the current year, light-vehicle registrations are now seen to be 89.82 million units, an increase of 2.0% year on year, although this is below the 90.02 million units originally forecast.

While a further gain of 1.4% year on year to 91.06 million units is anticipated in 2017, this is around 1.25 million units behind what had been originally anticipated IHS Automotive also sees global sales hitting 93.12 million units in 2018, versus the previous forecast of 94.5 million units.