UK hits “peak petrol” in 2024

The UK has reached “peak petrol” as the number of petrol cars on the road tumbles by almost half over the next decade, according to Auto Trader analysis.

The forecasts from the UK’s largest online vehicle platform show the number of petrol cars in the UK’s car parc of 32.8m vehicles is set to decline from the current 18.7m to just 11.1m by 2034 as drivers move towards electric vehicles.

Over the same period, the number of EVs on Britain’s roads is set to rise from 1.25m to 13.7m as the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel powered vehicles by 2030 draws ever closer, while the overall stock of diesel engine vehicles slides from 10m to 4.3m, according to Auto Trader’s data.

The decline of petrol-powered cars comes amid increased affordability in the used EV market and price parity between electric and conventionally powered vehicles. According to Auto Trader’s data, one in three used EVs are priced under £20,000 (a 25% increase on 2023) while a growing number of three-to-five year-old EVs cost the same, or less, than their petrol or diesel counterparts. As a result, these ‘middle-aged’ electrics are selling in just 19 days – 11 days faster than the overall average.

Auto Trader predicts that the new car market will remain just under the 2 million car level next year, rising 2% to 1.98 million as manufacturers and retailers face a challenging combination of stricter regulatory targets, uncertain brand loyalty, and tougher competition between brands as new entrants like China’s BYD compete with traditional players.

While marking a third consecutive year of growth, the 2% increase would still leave the 2025 new car market 14% below the 2.31m new car registrations recorded in pre-pandemic 2019, as manufacturers rely on heavy discounting to encourage buyers.

The share of the new car market taken by EVs is set to rise from around18% in 2024 to 23% next year. This remains some way below the 28% target for sales under the Zero Emissions Vehicle mandate, which increases from 22% this year.

The used car market is expected to maintain the strong growth momentum of the last two years and rise from an estimated 7.61m sales this year to around 7.70m. Despite the political instability of a general election and a challenging economic backdrop, used car demand remained extremely resilient this year, as reflected in the 970.6m visits to Auto Trader over the last 12 months, up 74m on 2023. The predicted 2025 growth means the market will be within just 3% of pre-pandemic volumes.

“We expect to see a seismic shift in British motoring over the next decade as the number of petrol cars falls by nearly half and EVs take a much bigger share.

“All this is happening against the backdrop of exceptionally strong used car demand despite a range of challenges for the industry, not least the introduction of ZEV targets, constrained supply, changing finance rules, and the Budget.

“We’re seeing record levels of engagement on our platform, rapid speed of sale, and the stabilising of retail prices. And with the more attractively priced and available stock in recent months helping to fuel new car interest, the overall retail market is entering 2025 on a strong footing.”