Sharp drop in petrol and diesel fleets by 2025

Just half (50%) of vans and a little over a quarter (28%) of UK company cars are predicted to be using petrol or diesel power alone by 2025, according to findings from the latest Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer, which shows fleet and mobility decision makers expect electrification of their vehicle fleets to happen at speed.

Shaun Sadlier, head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said: “Looking three years ahead takes us to 2025 and, by that point in time, the research shows that fleet operators expect electrified vehicles to dominate their fleets.

“The numbers show the anticipated rapidity of the decline of 100% petrol and diesel powered vehicles. This view is remarkably consistent across companies of all sizes according to our data – from those with fewer than 10 employees to those with more than 1,000 – and there is an absolute expectation that electrification will happen at speed and across all vehicle types.”

The UK results are also ahead of 19 other European countries surveyed – where the number of cars using petrol or diesel is expected to be 52% and vans 64%.

In your opinion, what percentage of your fleet will be either petrol or diesel in three years? (excluding hybrid vehicles)

	Total	Fewer than 10 employees	10-99 employees	100-999 employees	More than 1,000 employees
Cars
UK	28%	26%	30%	29%	29%
Europe	52%	51%	55%	53%	52%
Vans
UK	50%	53%	58%	41%	52%
Europe	64%	64%	68%	62%	63%

However, Sadler cautioned that the forecasts could prove overoptimistic in the case of vans, where there are issues around supply and model choice, as well as cost and operational challenges.

“Our view is that the data should perhaps instead be viewed less as an outright prediction and more as an indication of the commitment of fleet operators to electrification which, in the light of the results seen here, cannot be doubted and if we can resolve issues such as the supply and charging of electric vehicles it is likely the transition will take place sooner rather than later,” he declared.

Learn more about the challenges facing the fleet and consumer auto market in AFC’s next webcast on Thursday 25 August, when Mike Dennett, CEO of BMW Financial Services (GB) and Spencer Halil, CCO of Alphabet (GB) are in conversation with AFC content leader David Betteley.

During the webcast, sponsored by fleet software solutions provider Solifi, the three auto industry specialists will examine how the fleet and retail auto finance markets are beginning to merge, as private consumers opt for pay-monthly products previously exclusive to the corporate market.