Climate change report recommends ban on plug-in hybrids from 2030

A recent report from the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has dismissed the green credentials of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs).

The CCC’s Progress in reducing emissions – 2023 Report to Parliament highlights new evidence from the Government’s Carbon Budget Delivery Plan (CBDP) which shows that the carbon savings from PHEV cars are around three to five times lower in the real world than previously assumed.

This means that the carbon savings accrued from the adoption of PHEVs are substantially smaller – by around 9 MtCO2e/year – than in the Net Zero Strategy analysis.

The CCC is positive that this evidence has been incorporated into the modelling, emphasising the “importance of prioritising battery-electric vehicles (BEV) over less efficient and less cost-effective PHEVs”.

The CCC added that, “The Government should use this evidence to justify either permitting only BEV sales or setting a very ambitious definition of ‘significant zero-emission capability’ when deciding what vehicles will be allowed to be sold in the period 2030-2035.”

In their decision to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans from 2030, the Government said that it will allow the sale of hybrid cars and vans that can drive a “significant distance” with no carbon coming out of the tailpipe until 2035.

Delivering the 2030 phase-out of new conventional car and van sales is vital to meeting the UK’s decarbonisation pathway, according to the new report.

The final consultation on the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which will require manufacturers to sell a rising proportion of ZEVs on the way to this, was published in March.

The CCC sees this as an important policy which will ensure that electric vehicle (EV) sales scale up at the rate required, and hopes that the “Government should focus on finalising its implementation and addressing the key enablers which will allow it to succeed”.

Although the inclusion of various flexibilities for manufacturers will likely slightly weaken its practical impact, the CCC believe that “the ZEV mandate remains a credible delivery mechanism, and the Government must now work at pace to ensure that it is implemented from 2024 as planned”.

The report highlights an opportunity to build on this progress to develop regulations and enabling policies to drive forward the market for zero-emission heavy goods vehicles (HGVs).

Whilst the Government and industry have identified this as an area where there could be both emissions and economic benefits from the UK being a global first-mover, the CCC commented that, “Swift action is vital to realise these”.

The CCC have acknowledged in the report that the UK’s EV charging network has expanded by almost one-third over the past year, although “provision remains inconsistent across the country and there are concerns around reliability and cost”.

The rate of charge point deployment will need to more than double in the coming year and beyond to ensure charging provision keeps pace with EV uptake.

“This is vital – if progress is insufficient, delayed or patchy, or if cost and reliability issues present barriers to use, it could undermine public confidence in the suitability of EVs and pose a serious risk to the achievement of the 2030 phase-out of new petrol and diesel vehicles.”

The report further noted that reducing vehicle sizes and weights could also be beneficial for EVs, where larger vehicles have higher embedded emissions and consume more electricity.

The full report from the Climate Change Committee is available to download here.