Big increase in US lessors anticipating growth in demand for capex-financing over next four months

Overall, confidence in the US equipment finance market is 65.1, the highest index in two years and an increase from the February index of 63.3, reports the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (ELFF) in its latest Monthly Confidence Index (MCI).  The first quarter MCI levels are the three highest since April 2011.

When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI survey respondent Daryn Lecy (pictured above), VP of Operations, Stearns Bank N.A. Equipment Finance Division, said: “Considering we are coming off what are typically slower months and the likelihood that our extra-aggressive winter weather further impacted new business, we remain optimistic for 2014.  We are fortunate to be experiencing year-over-year growth, increasing demand, and overall solid delinquency levels.” 

March 2014 Survey Results:

The overall MCI-EFI is 65.1, an increase from the February index of 63.3.

When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months:

•  31.4% of executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, up from 21.2% in February.  65.7% of respondents believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, down from 72.7% in February.  2.9% believe business conditions will worsen, down from 6.1% who believed so the previous month;

•  some 31.4% of survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, up from 24.2% in February.  62.9% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, down from 69.7% the previous month.  5.7% believe demand will decline, down from 6.1% who believed so in February;

•  31.4% of executives expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, unchanged from February. 68.6% of survey respondents indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, up from 65.5% in February.  No one expects “less” access to capital, down from 3.1% who expected less access the previous month;

•  40% of the executives reported they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, relatively unchanged from February.  60% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, up from 53% last month.  No one expects fewer employees, down from 6.3% who expected fewer employees in February;

•    5.7% of the leadership evaluates the current US economy as “excellent,” up from 3% last month.  88.6% of the leadership evaluates the current US economy as “fair,” down from 93.8% last month.  5.7% rate it as “poor,” up from 3% last month;

•   31.4% of the of survey respondents believe that US economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, a decrease from 34.4% who believed so in February.  68.6% of survey respondents indicate they believe the US economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, an increase from 59.4% in February.  No one believes economic conditions in the US will worsen over the next six months, a decrease from 6.2% last month;

•   In March, 45.7% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, a decrease from 56.3% in February.  54.3% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, an increase from 43.8% last month.  No one believes there will be a decrease in spending, unchanged from last month.

March 2014 MCI Survey comments from industry executive leadership:

Bank, Small Ticket
“We continue to see strong growth in both applications and origination volume.  We are optimistic that this trend will continue as we close out the first quarter.  In addition, portfolio performance in terms of delinquencies remains very low.”  David Schaefer, CEO, Mintaka Financial, LLC

Independent, Middle Ticket
“New business volume targets in our truck transportation business continue to be met or exceeded by our over 2,300 dealers nationwide in the U.S., suggesting continued strength in the economy.”  William Besgen, president & COO, Hitachi Capital America Corp.

Bank, Middle Ticket
“The overall economy is fair; however, I do see an increase in capital expenditures in 2014.  The capital expenditures will be made to reduce labor cost and/or replace outdated or worn out equipment.”  Elaine Temple, president, Bancorpsouth Equipment Finance